After reading my earlier posts on the preseason testing, I noticed that I have been missing out a couple of factors I think are going to make a big difference this coming season, as far as how I think the drivers and teams will perform. Most notably is the new rule forbidding refueling during the race. This is important for a number of reasons. Firstly, it means that the only real advantage teams can gain from two stop or three stop strategies, is faster paces from fresh tyres and better race traction from adjustments in the front wing. In my opinion I can not see the value in these strategies and I think we will only see more stops due to repair or weather appropriate tyre changes.
The fact that drivers lose so much time during a stop, albeit less time without refueling, means that there is nothing to gain from a tyre change or wing adjustment, when weighed against that of a pit stop. So, what does this mean? Well it means that drivers are going to have to take much better care of their tyres to ensure they can make it over the longer hauls and it also means that teams with better fuel efficiency, will have the advantage over cars that need to carry more fuel for the same amount of laps. This is a compounding problem because of course, the more fuel a car needs to carry, the more weight is in the car, which means it needs more fuel to carry the weight and the slower it is out on the track.
Now I'm on record in saying that I think the top four contenders for the championship this year is Webber, Vettel, Alonso and Hamilton. So lets take a little look at these four, to determine who is going to be the most advantageous, leading into this season. Webber and Vettel both have an advantage in that, their Red Bull RB6 has proven to be one of the most fuel efficient cars on the track. My concern for Vettel here is that conserving fuel is something that the more experienced drivers typically do better, it's a natural learning that comes in time. So of course my pick of the two team mates is Webber however, the young German has proven to be a quick learner and is shaping up to be one of the best drivers we will watch over then next decade or so. Hamilton too, has shown us that he is not one who constantly practices conservative driving styles.
I'm not advocating a lack of taking chances during overtaking maneuvers or giving up positions on the track here, I'm simply pointing out that he, like Vettel have shown us a desire to fight on and put in blistering times lap after lap after they have been instructed to conserve fuel in the past. Which leads me to believe that the two might find it hard to find the constraint required to make it on track, for as many laps as the engineers and strategists would like. Of course, this will probably only be a short lived issue, as I'm sure they will learn quickly after a few races but could cost them valuable points early in the season. Alonso shouldn't really have an issue with this. One of his most valuable assets is his racing intelligence.
Now of course the second issue of long hauls on the track and compounded by the brazen balls out driving by the youngsters lap in lap out, is the issue of premature tyre wear. Hamilton for one, has consistently pushed his tyres to breaking point, race in race out. Most notably, his DNF in his rookie year in 2007 at the Shanghai International Circuit in China. Sure we could blame the strategists or analysts for not pulling him in a lap earlier but coupling that with his racing style, meant that his tyres wore down to the canvas and prevented his completion of the race and quite possibly cost him the championship. Webber and Alonso shouldn't have any issues with tyre wear but I think it's a little too early to speculate on Vettel's ability, as we probably haven't seen enough one stop strategies from him so far.
As far as car readiness is concerned, one would have to assume that the Red Bull RB6 looks good but the Ferrari is looking even better. The guys over there have been working on this new car since June of last year and is pretty much ready for the new season. This confidence is highlighted in the fact that the Alonso didn't run the track on the final day of testing, only Massa who probably needs all the practice he can get after his brain damage from last year. My prediction is that he will always toy with the front this year but only because the car is so good. I don't rate him as a driver and I think that anyone in as good a car as the Ferrari this year and of course their incredible cars from 2007 and 2008, would have just as many podiums under their belt (harsh, I know).
One point I'd like to make is in the ingenuity shown by Red Bull's chief technical officer, Adrian Newey. By this, I am talking about his development regarding the car's exit points of the exhaust pipes. He has moved the exhaust vents to the outer side of the gearbox and directed them to fire below the bottom suspension wishbone. This channels all the hot air around the rear suspension, allowing it to flow out and over the top side of the floor. They (humorously) tried to cover up this sneaky little trick by placing a sticker that looks identical to that of the old exhaust system, above the new exhaust where it would normally escape from, in an attempt to fool onlookers and the press into assuming they hadn't changed the design at all. The only downside is that there is a possibility that the heat from the exhaust may do some damage to the suspension, so the team has fitted the wishbone and floor with little blue temp sensors to see if the heat will cause any issues during the race.
In conclusion, I believe that of my top four picks for this season, it will be a stronger battle between Webber and Alonso, closely fought behind by Hamilton and Vettel, with all taking race victories throughout the season.
Some notable points go to the under-dogs in the pack, especially Force India. Watch out for some great races from Sutil who's been showing some great pace during the preseason, as long as he doesn't crash and take out half of the Field. Also, I believe we may even see some hot races from the recently struggling Williams team, as Barrichello will be hot to prove his carry on after being dropped from Brawn GP, even after a very successful season last year. However, I also predict that his rookie team mate Hulkenberg will surely give him a run for his money (and the rest of the field for that matter) as he's been surprising many with his good form this preseason.
Finally, to take a look at the new kids on the block (by that I mean Lotus and Virgin... where the fuck are the rest of them? Scratching their asses (fuck you Mr. Windsor)).
So far we've seen the Lotus showing more reliability that the Virgin and has also announced that they will be fitting a new aero package in May, which should give them substantially quicker times. The Virgin team on the other hand, have shown much better individual lap times than Lotus but have been struggling with their hydraulic systems. An issue that Red Bull knows far too well from seasons past.
The major issue here is that just about everything on a F1 car is hydraulically operated... uh, the throttle, the gear box, the brakes! Shit, that's not looking good for them. They say they are working on a fix for the issue but may not be ready for some, four races to come. On the plus side for them, they have indicated that they will be arriving with a new aero package for the season's opener at Bahrain. So we'll just have to wait and see.
This should be an awesome season for F1.
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